Global Ski Area Climate Vulnerability (2026-2036) Map

Ski areas facing the most immediate threat of closure over the next decade share distinct spatial characteristics: base elevations below 1,500 meters (roughly 4,900 feet), high exposure to maritime or transitional climates, and an inability to maintain the consistent sub-freezing temperature windows required for artificial snowmaking.

The European Alps: Austria and the Pre-Alps

The Alps are currently warming at roughly twice the global average, putting intense pressure on lower-latitude and lower-elevation winter infrastructure.

Lower Austria & Salzburg: Mid-mountain and lower-elevation resorts are experiencing significantly shorter freeze-thaw cycles. Base depths are degrading earlier in the season, making snow preservation difficult and heavily stressing local water and energy resources for snowmaking.
The Pre-Alps (France & Germany): Resorts in the Jura, Vosges, and Bavarian Alps are increasingly seeing winter precipitation fall as rain. Rain-on-snow events rapidly destroy existing base layers, threatening the economic viability of smaller, community-run hills in these ranges.

The North American West: Pacific Northwest and Sierra Fringes

While historically known for deep maritime snowpacks, western regions are increasingly vulnerable to volatile temperature spikes and persistent atmospheric blocking.

Cascades and Lower Sierras: Massive high-pressure systems—such as recent heat domes pushing temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above normal—are triggering abrupt, catastrophic spring melts. Resorts without high-alpine terrain (above 8,000 feet) to serve as a refuge are facing increasingly premature closures.

The North American East: New England & The Mid-Atlantic

Eastern resorts have long relied on intensive, wall-to-wall snowmaking to combat natural weather variability, but rising baseline temperatures are shrinking the viable operating windows for snow guns.

Southern Appalachians & Mid-Atlantic: Ski areas in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina are losing the critical overnight freezing hours needed to blow snow, pushing them toward operational collapse during mild winters.
Lower New England: Resorts in southern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts face an increased frequency of mid-winter thaws that wash out the man-made base, making it financially unsustainable to repeatedly rebuild the slopes.

The Southern Hemisphere: Australia

The Australian Alps have the lowest peak elevations of any major global ski region, making them uniquely exposed to warming trends.

New South Wales & Victoria: With maximum elevations barely exceeding 2,200 meters, Australian resorts cannot retreat higher up the mountain. The snow line is steadily creeping upward, resulting in shorter, highly erratic seasons where lower lifts and runs remain permanently closed.

with_variable('elev_risk', clamp(0, (2500 - "ski_area_metrics_min_elevation") / 1500, 1),

with_variable('lat_risk', clamp(0, (55 - abs("ski_area_metrics_latitude")) / 20, 1),

round(1 + ((@elev_risk * 0.5) + (@lat_risk * 0.3) + (@solar_risk * 0.2)) * 9, 1)

Elevation (2461.4m): Extremely close to the 2500m "safe" threshold. Risk = ~0.02.

Latitude (37.64°): Fairly far south, increasing macro-climate risk. Risk = ~0.86.

Poleward Affinity (0.45): Mostly north-facing, decreasing micro-climate risk. Risk = ~0.27.

You can easily tweak the model to fit your exact assumptions by changing the numbers in the code block:

If you want to change the importance of the variables, just adjust the multipliers (e.g., @elev_risk * 0.6 and @lat_risk * 0.2), ensuring the three decimals still add up exactly to 1.0.

Other climate variables like new weather patterns were not factored in. For example: The new Heat Dome Effect: In mid-to-late March 2026, a stubborn, high-pressure ridge parked itself over the Western United States. This heat dome trapped descending air, which compressed and heated up, effectively blocking cooler weather systems or spring storms from moving into the region.

Extreme Temperature Spikes: This atmospheric block drove temperatures 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit above average across almost every major ski region, from California and the Pacific Northwest all the way east through the Rockies.

Premature Snowmelt: The timing was a worst-case scenario. Hitting right when the mountain snowpack typically reaches its peak depth, the sustained heat aggressively baked the slopes. Areas that were already struggling with a lower-than-normal base lost their snow rapidly, forcing highly premature season closures at resorts across Tahoe, Utah, Idaho, and Colorado, while triggering early alarms for the upcoming fire season and summer water supply.